The Collapse of the Old Guard: Why Mexico's Opposition Faces Extinction in the Midterms

In less than a year, Mexico will hold its midterm elections, where 500 federal deputies, 17 state governorships and their local congresses, and more than 2,000 municipal and city councils will be elected. This election is particularly important, not just for the ruling party Morena to retain its governorships, but to capture the states that the opposition continues to hold, such as Chihuahua, Querétaro, Aguascalientes, and Nuevo León.

According to the latest Enkoll poll, the right-wing opposition is at a significant disadvantage. Morena continues to maintain a strong lead among Mexican voters, with 43% identifying with the party and 59% viewing it positively. Meanwhile, the opposition's numbers are far from optimistic, leaving them with little chance of gaining ground over Morena—even if the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), with only 7% voter identification, and the National Action Party (PAN), with 11%, run in a formal coalition. The PRI is the political party with the highest negative rating at 60%, followed by the PAN at 50%. Even if Citizens' Movement (MC), which has 11% voter identification, joins the coalition they remain far from overtaking the ruling party. 

What is also revealing are the latest figures given by the National Electoral Institute (INE) on party affiliation. Morena is the party that grew the most, jumping from 2,322,136 members in 2023 to 11,629,541, representing a growth of 400.81% and the addition of more than 9.3 million people. In contrast, the PRI—the hegemonic party for more than seven decades—lost 592,786 members between 2023 and 2026, a reduction of 49.99% that leaves the party with just 810,103 members. Meanwhile, the PAN—which governed from 2000 to 2012—registered a growth of 31.8%, adding 88,439 members to reach a total of 366,104. However, it maintains a territorial presence in 25 states—just five above the legal minimum of 20 entities. As for MC, it did not manage to increase its base, dropping from 384,000 in 2023 to 318,642 in 2026 (a 17.02% reduction) while maintaining a presence in 29 states.

Meanwhile, Morena’s allied parties also saw significant growth in their membership. Specifically, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) went from around 592,000 members to 1,061,319—an increase of 79.15%. On the other hand, the Labor Party (PT) jumped from roughly 457,000 to 590,797 members, marking a 29.10% growth.

All of the above explains the opposition's desperation and the negative campaigns they are driving in the media and on social media—solely to discredit Morena and the government by alleging supposed ties to organized crime. Flamboyant opposition figures—such as PAN Senator Lilly Téllez and PRI national president and Senator Alejandro Moreno—constantly call for U.S. intervention, and they frequently appear on Fox News, where they are interviewed by Julie Banderas and Rachel Campos-Duffy respectively. 

Moreover, Alejandro Moreno is on the ropes as his party is at risk of losing its registration if it fails to reach 3% of the valid votes cast in the federal election. Furthermore, his legal status is still hanging in the balance. He is under investigation by the Attorney General's Office and the State Prosecutor's Office of Campeche for alleged embezzlement, illicit enrichment, money laundering, abuse of authority, and the diversion of public resources exceeding 83.5 million pesos (USD $4,944,573.41) during his administration as governor of Campeche (2015–2019). Dozens of his close associates are also being investigated for the use of shell companies. A process to strip him of his immunity in the Chamber of Deputies is still pending. In the face of this, Moreno alleges that he is being politically persecuted by what he calls the “dictatorship of Morena.”

The strength with which Morena enters the midterm elections can only be explained by the fact that the administrations of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and President Claudia Sheinbaum have delivered tangible results and significantly improved the livelihood of many Mexicans. The polling numbers of President Sheinbaum at two years into her administration hover around 68 to 73 percent. The only vision that the opposition has for the nation is a return to the neoliberal model—which the  majority of Mexicans rejected in 2018—that impoverished the vast majority of the population, enriched an elite, and handed over the country's natural resources for the benefit of foreign corporations.

While Morena and the governments of the Fourth Transformation focus on collective well-being—paying special attention to the poorest—and on defending national interests and sovereignty, the right-wing opposition focuses on benefiting a small elite, enriching itself through power, and serving foreign interests, particularly those of the United States. The majority of Mexicans are aware of this and are unwilling to return to the past. Consequently, the opposition finds itself in a difficult position, lacking credibility, with no prospect of returning to power in the short or medium term.

Image: Gemini AI